From kvaughn at me.com Tue Dec 15 23:34:09 2009 From: kvaughn at me.com (Kenneth Vaughn) Date: Wed, 16 Dec 2009 00:34:09 -0500 Subject: [Rating] Candidate Evaluations: 5th, 8th, 10th, and 11th Districts In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <98CF1D56-01C3-4746-9B72-55752E1ABFFF@me.com> Verga is running in the 5th District. This used to be Virgil Goode's seat (R) who lost out due to some sort of controversy that came up and the Democrat won by something like 700 votes in the last election (with Obama on the ticket). Thus, this is widely considered to be a seat that the Republicans will almost certainly pick up - but there is no Republican incumbent... As a result, there are several people saying that they are going to run in the primary. These include: Laurence Verga Ken Boyd Michael McPadden Robert Hurt Ron Ferrin Jim McKelvey Feda Morton Bradley Rees Hurt is the party establishment choice - but he does not get very good ratings from liberty organizations. What I find interesting is that most of the others that I have met (or seen literature on), seem to be focusing on claiming the tea party / 912 mantle. These include Verga, McPadden, McKelvey, Morton, and Rees. Not being from the district, not knowing these candidates personally, and not having time to fully vet them myself, I am hesitant to say which is the best candidate. I do think it is important for the 5th district to get this list down to a single strong liberty-minded candidate and from what I am hearing, that is not Hurt - but at this point I am not willing to say which candidate is best. Closer to home, the candidate race seems to be shaping up as follows (candidates according to Open Secrets; analysis mine): (* incumbent) 8th District Jim Moran* (D) Ronald Mitchell (D) Matthew Famiglietti (D) Laurence Socci (R) Matthew Berry (R) Carvel St John (3) -- don't know what the 3 means The 8th District is quite liberal and will probably go to the Democrats. Moran is a 20-year incumbent and won in '08 with 68% of the vote vs 30%. Famiglietti ran against Moran in the '08 Primary and lost 13% to 87%. He will be hard to get out, but in my book 20 years is too long for anyone - and I think that is a case that most people would agree with. However, regardless how much someone might agree with that decision, they probably won't vote for someone with very different views. Thus, my bet is that a Democrat will win the general election - the question is who will that Democrat be? While Moran is the clear favorite, I think efforts to support one of the other D candidates in the primary are more likely to result in a change than worrying about which Republican is chosen. And - even more importantly, helping out a D in the primary does not prevent helping out a R in the general. (unless you are an R party member, in which case, you'd be prohibited from helping out the D candidate - even in the primary according to R party rules). My recommendation, help out Mitchell or Famiglietti; I don't know enough about the two to know which would be better or more likely to oust Moran. I would say that even a more liberal (new) candidate would be better than a 20-year, clearly liberal incumbent. 10th District Frank Wolf* (R) Jim Trautz (R) Patrick Lewis (D) Richard Anthony (D) Dennis Findley (D) The 10th district is quite conservative and will probably go to the Republicans, especially in a year when one would expect a significant conservative backlash to the current government actions. Frank Wolf, a 30-year incumbent, won 59% to 39% in 2008. As mentioned before, 20 years is too long and 30 years is more than my voting lifetime! This alone is justification for him to go. He also voted for the TARP bailout and for the mandate to use compact fluorescent light bulbs starting 2014. Each of these votes are also deal killers in my mind. Luckily Jim Trautz is a liberty-minded candidate, has supported the tea party/912 movement, has signed the 9-12 pledge (i.e., 912candidates.org) and has been endorsed by the Independence Caucus. To me, he is the clear choice in this race... As a part of full disclosure, I also considered running for this seat; but I determined that Jim had a better shot at defeating Frank Wolf than I did and given that we were looking at an incumbent, I decided it would be better to have one clearly identified challenger than having challengers split the vote. As such, rather than competing against Jim, I decided to join his campaign team and now manage his online communication efforts. However, the facts remain the same. I believe it is unwise to keep any politician in the same office for 30- years; several of Frank Wolf's votes violate several of my basic principles; and Jim is a good candidate. My recommendation: Support Jim Trautz. 11th District Gerry Connolly* (D) Keith S Fimian (R) Paul A Miller (R) David Peterson (R) I believe the 11th district is likely to change parties. The district is somewhat of a swing district; it was Tom Davis (a moderate Republican) for 14 years, until he decided not to run in 2008. Connolly then won by 55% to 43% (against Fimian) with Obama on the ballot. Given the conservative backlash to this election cycle, I think it is entirely possible to see this seat switch parties, but it will probably be very close. I do not have a good feel for the candidates in this race yet, neither as to their overall philospophies nor to their overall chances of winning in the general election. However, Connolly has proven to be very liberal or at least unwilling to stand up to the Democrat establishment that is pushing to dismantle the Constitution; thus, I would think the Republican candidate would likely be better, whoever it is. My Recommendation: Investigate the Republican candidates further and choose one to support against Connolly. I'd be interested in hearing other people's input. Also, I am also very interested in hearing what questions we should be asking these candidates. Do we believe a questionnaire is still useful? Do we think we need to join with some other group to have more weight behind our name? What questions should we ask? Is a longer list of questions better, or a shorter list? Let me know your thoughts.... Regards, Ken Vaughn www.political-gumbo.com On Dec 12, 2009, at 10:17 PM, Linda Miller wrote: > Let's look into this person, Mike Ross, further. He sounds good! > Does anyone know more about him? We need to support the good ones. > Also, I was listening to Laura Ingram the other day and she was > interviewing a candidate named Verga who was running for a delegate > seat in the area of Martinsville or Martinsberg, VA. He is running > against an incumbent spender named Hurdt who must be put out to > pasture. His website (I think) is VergaforCongress.com. He > mentioned "10 for 10" and my memory fails me about this totally. > Does anyone know about this "10 for 10"? > > > > > From: mike.ross at mail.house.gov > To: lc8350 at hotmail.com > Subject: From the Office of Congressman Mike Ross (AR-04) > Date: Fri, 11 Dec 2009 18:02:10 -0500 > > > > Dear Friend: > > Thank you for contacting me regarding H.R. 3962, the Affordable > Health Care for America Act. I appreciate hearing from you on this > critically important issue. > > Health care is an incredibly personal issue that affects all 300 > million of us in America. It is also incredibly complicated and > costly. My ultimate goal has always been to pass a health care > reform bill that will offer the kind of reforms that I can support - > a common sense plan that reflects Arkansas values. > > I have spent the past few months traveling our Congressional > district and listening to you, the people who sent me to be their > voice in our nation's capital. You overwhelmingly told me that you > were opposed to the original 1,000 page House health care reform > bill and its $1 trillion price tag. Now, the new House health care > reform bill is over 2,000 pages and cost over $1.2 trillion. > Washington may not have heard you, but I heard you loud and clear, > and that's why I voted against creating this massive new government > spending program that we simply can not afford. While I strongly > support efforts to reform our health care system, we can accomplish > this without creating a new government-run health insurance program > and without spending $1.2 trillion. > > We must stop the out-of-control spending in Washington and begin > reducing our skyrocketing national debt. If we do not, we will > begin to suffer from massive inflation costing our already fragile > economy even more jobs. We are faced with the worst economic > recession since World War II. This is not the time to force > employees to buy health insurance they cannot afford or require > struggling small businesses to provide it. This is not the time to > raise federal taxes $730 billion. And, this is not the time to > impose new and costly mandates on our local school districts and > city, county and state governments, which would likely require tax > increases on working families. In fact, Governor Beebe has stated > that the Medicaid provisions in the House health care reform bill > could increase the state budget in Arkansas $205 million by 2015. > > > > > > > > Moreover, this House health care bill does nothing to reduce how > much the federal government spends on health care. The nonpartisan > Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Joint Committee on > Taxation estimate that H.R. 3962 would actually increase the federal > budgetary commitment to health care by about $598 billion over the > 2010 - 2019 period. I met with CBO Director Doug Elmendorf and he > made clear that the House bill, simply put, does not effectively > bring down the growing costs of health care. Actually, he said, the > House bill only perpetuates a system that is ultimately > unsustainable over the long term. > > I am also deeply concerned about this bill's unintended consequences > for our seniors. With more than $400 billion in cuts to Medicare, > it could force many of our rural hospitals to close, providing less > access and care for our seniors. I also voted against the health > care reform bill because it allows illegal immigrants to purchase > private insurance in the newly created government exchange. > > I also voted for a strict amendment that prohibits federally funded > abortions and does not allow any insurance plans - public or private > - in the newly created government exchange to cover elective > abortions. > > While I support providing affordable coverage for the uninsured and > cracking down on the health insurance companies, I believe we can > accomplish this with much less than a 2,000 page bill costing $1.2 > trillion. No one has worked harder on trying to accomplish health > care reform than I have. I am disappointed that the health care > reform bill passed by the House was not a common sense plan and did > not reflect Arkansas values. > > The passage of H.R 3962 is only one of several legislative steps > that remain before we have a final health care reform bill on which > to vote. The Senate has yet to act on their bill and we do not yet > know what the conference report - the final bill - will look like. > > During this economic crisis, I believe we should be focused on > putting people back to work, not growing the size of the federal > government with increased spending, new mandates and higher taxes. > > Thank you again for contacting me. I look forward to your continued > input as Congress moves forward with this critical debate. Please > do not hesitate to contact me in my Washington, D.C. or district > office most convenient to you if I can be of further assistance. > > > > Sincerely, > Mike Ross > > > Hotmail: Trusted email with powerful SPAM protection. 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